Hey Bobby. Been thinking about something and since you are far more erudite in regard to international affairs, I thought I'd bounce it off you.
I saw a news opinion piece sometime ago suggesting that the American century was over. I grew up with that concept and felt I was very lucky to be born into the nation which had become the leader of the world.
To be honest, I didn't bother to read the article. Still, the headline got me thinking.
I expect you remember that during Trump's first term I said I don't think our allies are ever going to trust us again. Even if Trump doesn't win a second term, who knows who we will elect next time?
And here he is.
It's not just that he's trying to destroy the American government except for a few powerful arms which he will remake into his servants carrying out his will, he's already trying for a third term but I question that he will be able to get it. Not to mention, the man is damned old. I doubt he has a third term in him.
I think this is something that runs a whole lot deeper than Trump. He's just a symptom of the disease.
My feeling is that the American people are in a position that reminds me very strongly of the British at the end of World War II. After centuries of empire building (and empire holding) the British people were tired of their young men going off to die in foreign countries so that the people back home could swagger about in imperial pride and the ultra rich could benefit from the loot collected from around the subservient globe.
They adored Winston Churchill as the unparalleled leader who led the crusade against the Nazis, but they had no interest in following this old noble in struggling to retain the British Empire.
They wanted a national health service. They wanted to be exactly what Napoleon always said they were, a nation of shopkeepers rather than a nation of conquerors.
Trump, with his whole America first thing, is about in the same position right now. The original America first movement headed by Lindbergh simply didn't want us to be used by the European powers as cannon fodder to grow their empires. The America first movement today is not that old movement brought back to life. Today it's a rejection by the American people of being the world's policeman. Many Americans don't want American soldiers going to war in foreign lands.
They're tired of paying the price for leading the world and no wonder, it's a very expensive price. I recently saw a report that today America still spends more on its military budget than the next 10 nations combined. We could do a lot domestically with even a portion of those funds.
We're almost a century late to the party, but I really think a lot of of us are ready to turn into a more thoroughly socialized nation.
Yes, the Trumpsters say that that's what they hate the most, but as was pointed out before the affordable care act was adopted, once people have it, they do not want to let it go. The Brits traded their world empire for the NIH, but I think we're getting prepared to do that ourselves.
I hate to say it, but I think what we really need right now is Teddy Roosevelt. Not the rough rider (me he-man) but the trustbuster. Even Trumpsters might be able to get behind that if the theoretical hero promised to bring our troops home and stop leading the world at the cost of American treasure and blood.
This brings up the next part of the question. If we do resign from the position who replaces us?
China desperately wants to, but China's in desperately bad shape. Her economy is nothing but a giant bubble. Corruption is so extremely pervasive bridges regularly collapse alongside of buildings and the rapidly built cities are on the edge of an economic disaster. Even their fake islands that they constructed in order to claim the South China Sea are beginning to erode away right out from under their naval and airbases.
India has potential but it's wrapped up in its own extreme right ring hatred and bigotry and I think lacks the industrial base to be regarded as a serious contender.
Remember a few decades back when everyone thought Brazil was going to rule the world? No one's even suggesting it now.
Russia? " I will quote Baron Stein, "Theirs is the rage of dreaming sheep!" Russia had an opportunity to be a economic powerhouse. Putin has crushed Russia for the foreseeable future. Even if he wins in Ukraine, he has lost every other battle, including the economic struggles.
I think the best bet is the European Union. It's hard to credit tired old Europe becoming the world leader again, but a united Europe is a new beast. If Europe can successfully stop its endless efforts to conduct war against itself, it will be an economic powerhouse with plenty of resources and plenty of manpower -- and it's highly industrialized as well. We all have assumed that Europe is that stable, but then Europe was assuming that Russia was that stable too. (remember Angela Merkel assuring the world that Russia was now a friendly bear?) The European Union is still an experiment that's in its early stages. If they can keep it together, I think this century will be called the European Union century.
So, lots to cover here. I wonder how you respond to my oddball thoughts.
